As we head into autumn, not much is changing in the world of real estate, at least not in the Fraser Valley when it comes to sales activity. 2024 has seen some of the slowest months for total sales numbers over a 10 year span and September was no different.

With 873 residential sales in September 2024, we saw the same trend we have been seeing for nearly half a year with sales numbers declining compared to the previous month. September saw 7% fewer sales than August, and 10% fewer than September 2023, and 30% below the 10-year average for the month.

The low number of sales is indication that buyers are just not quite ready to jump back in the market yet, despite 3 Bank of Canada interest rate decreases in a row. Another announcement is scheduled for October 23, 2024, and many analysts are thinking that we will likely drop .25-.50% again, bringing us down a whole percentage point or more than we started the summer with. So shouldn’t these rate decreases be spurring buyers to jump back in the market?

From a purely statistical standpoint, yes, that would be expected; But, that is just numbers and charts. What the stats do not indicate, is how the average Canadian feels about the economy and the pinch on the wallet that we have all been feeling over the last couple of years. Interest rates are only part of the affordability equation, but inflation has done its damage to many of our other monthly bills giving the average buyer the feeling that their dollar is simply not going as far as it once was. It is likely that this sentiment will turn in the future, the question just remains; When?

Sellers, on the other hand, are just not willing to accept the reality of the economic situation, and many are still hoping to get prices close to the peak in 2021. That market is simply a thing of the past right now, and in order to sell your home in this kind of a market, pricing correctly is imperative.

New listings, the best stat to measure sellers, continue to remain quite high with 2,883 new homes hitting the market in September 2024. This is a 20% increase compared to both August 2024 (typically a slower month for new listings) and one year ago in September 2023, and a whopping 25% more new listings than the 10 year average for the month of September.

All these new listings, combined with the low number of sales, has put the market on the threshold of a buyer’s market. With just 12.4 homes of every 100 listed actually selling in the month, it is the lowest Sales to Active Listing ratio the Fraser Valley has seen since January 2024. The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board dictates that anything less than 12% is a buyer’s market, 12-20% is a balanced market, and 20+% is a seller’s market. If we pair this with 8 months in a row of average sales prices (HPI Benchmark Prices) declining. This is the first time that we have seen both prices and interest rates declining at the same time in a very long time.

If we take a step back from the stats again and take a look at what is going on in the world of politics, there is a lot of uncertainty currently. With the provincial election this month, the US’s presidential election next month, and a potential early Canadian federal election looming overhead, many buyers are likely waiting to see the results of the 3 elections mentioned before making any major purchases.

Overall, it is difficult to say with any certainty what will happen in our market in the coming months. It is likely though that we will see activity pick up as rates continue to decrease and elections wrap up, regardless of the outcomes. In the big picture, most buyers tend to follow trends. With a “If no one else is buying, there must be a reason for it” mindset seeming to be the norm, this way of thinking will likely make many buyers get back in the market too late once everyone else is at the same time, increasing demand drastically, in turn, increasing prices again.

While the trend is still decreasing prices, it seems we are due for activity to pick up soon, causing another seller’s market with increasing prices and multiple offers. Buying sooner, may save you money if the market takes the turn that many industry experts are predicting.