May is typically one of the busiest months for real estate in the Fraser Valley, with about 1,693 homes selling in a normal year (based on the May 10-year average). May 2025, however, was far from normal.

With just 1,057 sales of all residential property types in May 2025, we were about 38% below the 10-year average and 21% below May 2024. We did, however, see a 14% increase month-over-month. While it's always good to see sales increasing sequentially, this rise from April to May is fairly typical for any year. The key takeaway here is the comparison to the 10-year average, which clearly shows that market activity remains well below seasonal norms.

Once again, lower-than-average sales are paired with higher-than-average new listings. May 2025 saw 3,412 new listings hit the market. This figure is 16% more than the 10-year average for the month, bringing us closer to that average than we have been for several months. If this trend of fewer new listings per month continues, and we move closer to the 10-year average, we could see more balance in the market as our total inventory begins to be depleted. Don't misunderstand me, this isn't happening yet; I've simply observed a trend that may indicate some change in the market in the coming months, but I wouldn't anticipate anything drastic.

Speaking of total inventory, as we know, more-than-average new listings combined with fewer-than-average sales means that the number of homes available for purchase on the MLS continues to build. Finishing the month with 8,159 homes for sale, we saw a month-to-month increase of 6.5%, a year-to-year increase of 40%, and a whopping 71% more than the 10-year average for May. Looking back as far as Fraser Valley Real Estate statistics go, we've only had more inventory for a four-month span back in 2008.

If we compare the total inventory to the number of sales, we get the sales-to-active-listings ratio, or more simply, how many homes sell for every 100 homes listed. Only 13% of homes listed in May actually sold, bringing us to the very low end of a balanced market. For context, 12% and lower is considered a buyer’s market, 12-20% is a balanced market, and above 20% is a seller’s market. May’s ratio was 1% higher than April’s, but 10% lower than last year. We can break this down further by looking at the ratio for each property type. Detached homes are in, and have been in, a buyer’s market for all of 2025, with just 11% in May 2025. Condos are on the verge of a buyer’s market as well, at just 13%, while townhomes are staying more active at 17%. We usually see townhomes with the highest ratio, as they attract both buyers upgrading from a condo and those downsizing from a detached home, creating a larger pool of potential buyers.

Prices have continued to slowly decrease overall for the last 2.5 years (with the odd month seeing a slight increase). May 2025 saw a 1% decrease compared to April 2025, and just over 4% lower than one year ago. If we combine this with the decreasing interest rates, overall affordability is about the same as March 2023 (when prices were at their lowest since the pandemic boom) or February 2022 (a few months before the peak of the pandemic boom).

Despite the improved affordability we've seen over the last year, buyers have yet to fully capitalize on it. It seems that even though our federal election is over, and discussions around tariffs have somewhat quieted, there's still enough uncertainty in the air to deter a high rate of buyers from entering the market. Job security, the cost of living, and inflation remain top of mind for many would-be buyers. Until these factors settle down, we will likely continue to see more of the same.

If you are considering buying a home, now may be a great time to do so. As we've established, affordability has been improving over the last couple of years, with both interest rates and home prices trending down. How far down will it all go? Well, that's the golden question no one has an answer to. What we do know now, however, is that the current conditions to purchase a home are quite favourable. Sure, prices might come down a little more, and interest rates may decrease further in the coming months, but nothing is certain except for what we see in front of us.

If you are looking to sell, the best course of action truly depends on your individual situation. While prices will likely start to increase again, the timing remains uncertain. Most industry experts had predicted such improvements would have already materialized. So, if you are waiting for higher home values, we simply don’t know how long that wait might be. What has happened in the last several months is that many would-be sellers have held off, hoping to see that increase, only to be left with a lower value than if they had sold at the beginning of the year.

Reach out today if you are thinking of making a move any time soon!