Despite the recent drop of 0.25% to Canada’s Overnight Interest Rate, sales remain slow, and prices actually dropped over the month of June, albeit by a fraction of a percent. With many forecasts claiming that a rate drop would stimulate the real estate market, this may come as a surprise to many who are watching the market closely. While this may not be the news that many would-be sellers are looking for, it could be an opportunity for buyers to get in before prices eventually go up due to rates decreasing.

With just 1,185 sales in June 2024, we saw a decrease of 11% compared to May 2024, and more than a 30% decrease compared to both June 2023 and the 10-year average for the month. New listings also saw a month-to-month decrease, with 2,940 new listings in June 2024, 8% fewer than May 2024, but 2% more than June 2023, and 7% higher than the 10-year average. This has helped to continue to increase inventory numbers with total inventory ending the month with 6,308 homes listed as available for sale.

If sales do start to pick up to more seasonal numbers, we will likely see inventory numbers begin to drop again, causing prices to increase once again. It is just a matter of time before rates go low enough to stimulate buyers back into the market. As mentioned earlier, this could make these next couple of months a good opportunity for those who are buying or upgrading their home to get in with “lower” prices (our prices are still certainly not low) and lower interest rates. While the recent 0.25% rate reduction does not really make any huge difference to monthly payments, a few more reductions will make a difference and likely drive sales and prices up. It’s now just a matter of how quickly we see rates come down. The quicker they come down, the sooner we should expect to see market activity pick up.

With the slower sales activity and increasing inventory levels, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is officially in a balanced market with 19 of every 100 homes listed selling in the month of June. Detached homes were firmly in Balanced Market territory with just 14 of 100 homes listed selling, and condos and townhomes were barely still in sellers’ market territory with 21 and 26 of every 100 homes listed selling. The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board deems 12 or less to be a buyers’ market, 12-20 to be a balanced market, and 20+ to be a sellers’ market.

Pricing has remained relatively stable for most of 2024, with less than 1% change up or down every month. In normal market conditions, we would see prices rise by about 4-6% in a “typical” spring market. Even with the lower number of sales and growing inventory, we really have not seen a lot of change in the time it takes for homes that do sell to sell. Detached homes took an average of 23 days to sell, while townhomes took 20 days, and condos took the longest on average, 30 days to sell.

So what does all this mean for you? My message is the same as it always has been, the best time to make a move is when it makes sense for you and your family to do so. If you are buying and selling, the prices tend to be relative, so there is no magical way to time the market perfectly. From a more nuanced standpoint, the relativity of the market does actually matter depending on whether you are upgrading (buying a home worth more than your current home) or downsizing (buying a home worth less than your current home). If you are upgrading, making that move sooner may actually pay off, as both your current home and your future home will go up by roughly the same percentage. The gap in price from your current home to your next will be larger if prices do go up. The opposite is true if you are downsizing as you will likely put more money in your pocket if you wait for prices to go up.

As touched on earlier, if you are just buying, sooner is probably more beneficial as you are purchasing at a lower price, but with a higher interest rate. The interest rate is only temporary until you renew though, so if you wait for rates to drop, you will be buying at a higher purchase price and have left the equity that you could have gained by purchasing sooner.

Overall, despite the lower-than-average number of sales happening, it is certainly not a bad time to make a move happen. Slower markets mean more time to make decisions and think things through. Reach out soon if you are thinking of making a move in the near future!

Sending my best wishes to you and yours for a restful and fun-filled summer.