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Is relief on the horizon for this wild real estate market we have been in for the last year and a half? I would say it is too early to say that with any certainty, however, we are starting to see the early signs of things leveling off.  

January 2022 saw sales cool and new listings increase in comparison to December 2021, however we saw prices go up fairly significantly in all property types with a 4% increase in price from New Year's day to January 31, 2022, which is not too much of an indication that things are actually slowing. Total sales in January 2022 finished at 1,247 which is down 28% compared to December 2021 and down 24% compared to January 2021. January 2022 saw 1,968 new listings in the month which is 69% more than December 2021 but 23% fewer than January 2021.  It is always difficult to pinpoint when a shift is happening, but the increase in new listings is certainly a good sign.

January 2022 finished with 1,947 available listings, which is up slightly from December 2021’s lowest ever for the Fraser Valley Board but 51% fewer than January 2021 (which was also a pretty hot market compared to normal). This is evidence that while we may be trending towards a more balanced market, we still have a long way to go. Spring is typically when the most new listings come up on the MLS, but in my experience it is also when most buyers decide to start looking as well.  The only way that things will balance out is if we fix the current ratio of buyers and available homes for sale which is yet to be seen. 

One of the best metrics we can use to see the ratio of buyers to sellers is called the Sales-to-Active Listing ratio (or in simpler terms, how many homes sell out of every 100 homes listed)  in which January 2022 did improve to 64 out 100 homes compared to December 2021’s 102 homes out of every 100 listed (this is not an error, more homes sold than were listed in the month and the extra homes were listed prior to the beginning of December 2021). While that does seem a like a significant step in the right direction, we do have to be cautious as we saw inventory levels dip to record lows last month. According to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, a balanced market is anywhere from 12-20 out of every 100 homes selling, so we are clearly not even close to balance yet.

As I have been saying for the last several months, if you are looking to make a move up by selling your current home and moving into a more expensive home, now may be the most affordable time to do so looking into the foreseeable future, as interest rates are likely to increase through the year.  As I do not predict seeing prices drop at all this year, buyers should probably think about getting in as soon as possible as well; As I just mentioned, prices will likely continue to climb and the cost of borrowing money will also likely increase.

If you are thinking about selling and not buying back in, we could be reaching a point where it is getting close to make sense to do so. If interest rates do continue to rise as they are forecasted to, there is a potential for a lot of investors to start to sell their properties. This will not likely be at a volume high enough to cause prices to fall, but it may make your home stand out a bit less than we currently would with the inventory being as low as it is. All in all, I would not say there is any urgency to sell at this point, but if it makes sense for you to use your recent increase in equity now may be a great time to sell for a lot of money without a lot of stress.

Overall I am predicting a relatively hectic spring market with much of the same that we have gotten used to over the last year and a half, though I do think the spring market will see an increase to the number of active listings. No matter what your plan is, if you are thinking about buying and or selling within the next year or so, be sure to get in touch soon so we can start making your plan tailored to your unique needs!