March has come and gone, and we’ve seen yet another slow month for home sales in the Fraser Valley real estate market. With only March 2009 having fewer sales, March 2025’s 934 sales are the second-lowest amount of sales for the month of March in the last 20 years. There may be a slight silver lining, however, as it seemed the second half of the month outperformed the first half, possibly marking an uptick in activity throughout the month.

While the 934 sales represent a 16% increase compared to February, they are down 25% year over year compared to March 2024 and a whopping 48% fewer sales than the 10-year average for the month.

Once again, these low sales have been paired with a higher-than-average number of new listings in the month, with March 2025 seeing 3,215 homes coming available for sale. This is a 20% increase month to month and a 27% increase year over year, coming in 13% above the 10-year average for the month.

Lower-than-average sales and higher-than-average new listings, of course, lead to an increase in active inventory, bringing a total of 6,921 homes available for sale at the end of the month of March, marking the highest inventory the Fraser Valley real estate market has seen in over 10 years. It is worth pointing out, however, that this kind of inventory is not unheard of in the Fraser Valley. Between March 2008 and June 2014, there were a total of 24 months that had higher total inventory than we have today.

As I have mentioned in many previous newsletters, it is certainly worth noting that there have been several thousand new homes (a conservative estimate is at least 50,000 new homes in the Fraser Valley in the last 10 years), which should in theory mean that the total inventory should be growing over time. This could be offset by sales increasing due to the population increase over the last 10 years (approximately 250,000 new residents in the Fraser Valley from 2016 to 2021, so the real number is likely higher than that if we include the last 4 years, for which we do not have accurate data until the next census).

If we were seeing the inventory remain flat over time due to the increase in population, it should mean that the total number of sales should always be increasing year by year, yet that is not what we are seeing. This could be due to many factors, but it seems like a few more obvious ones stand out. It seems people are staying in their homes longer than they used to, on average, and of course, affordability, which is also likely a cause of people staying in their homes longer. No matter how many new homes are built, if first-time buyers cannot afford to enter the market and many who would like to move up in property type cannot afford to do so, it makes moving extremely difficult or pointless. Hopefully, the recent and forecasted interest rate decreases will help alleviate the affordability issue, allowing more sales to happen and more people to get into the home they want to be in.

Of course, in today’s world, there are other concerns besides affordability (which is improving at a rate we have not seen in the Fraser Valley since 2008), such as the political climate surrounding the uncertainty of tariffs and our own federal election coming up at the end of the month. Once the election is over, and the tariffs are settled to more stable figures, the economy will have a clearer outlook, likely removing much of the uncertainty causing the slow real estate market.

While we did see total inventory numbers increase month to month, we also saw the sales-to-active listings ratio (how many homes sell for every 100 homes listed) increase from 13% to 14%, meaning that we are seeing a slightly more active market. Anything from 12-20% is considered a balanced market.

Detached homes have remained a buyer's market with only 10%, but condos and townhomes remain a balanced market with 14% and 19%, respectively. These numbers may not be entirely accurate, however, as they do not account for all the homes that are listed at prices far too high to be reasonable in today's market. While we have overpriced homes in all market types, there tend to be a lot more in a market with decreasing prices, as many sellers have a difficult time coming to terms with the reality of selling for less than their neighbor did a couple of years ago.

My sentiment on whether or not to buy or sell remains the same as it has been for the past several months. It is likely a good time to buy, as we have not seen the increases in affordability we have seen over the last year for almost two decades, and there is likely a limited window for how long this will last.

If you are buying and selling, things are likely mostly relative. However, if you do speculate that prices will increase, waiting could net you a higher downpayment, but also a higher purchase price on your next home.

If you are looking to sell, you have to be sure to list your home at the right price, or else it will just sit on the shelf of listings gathering dust. Waiting will likely net you more money in your pocket, but the question remains -- when will that be?

Overall, it is not a bad time to make a move, and may even be lucrative to do so in today's climate of homes being more affordable (lower interest rate and lower purchase price) than they were just a year ago as it likely won't last long. In addition to the increased affordability, time is also on your side. With less competition and more homes to choose from, the luxury of time to make a well thought out decision cannot be overlooked.  Reach out today if you have any questions about the market, or if you're thinking of making a move in the future. It's never too early to start planning!