With sales continuing to slow down, and new listings starting to pick up, we are finally starting to see balance in our market once again. But, the big questions is, how long will it last?

It really depends on many different factors, but the main factor of course will be the interest rates. At the end of October, the Bank of Canada will announce once again what interest rates will do. Currently, the forecasts seem to be split with about 50/50 odds that the rates will hold steady or increase, and no one reputable that I could find was predicting any form of a decrease. If rates hold steady, it seems likely based on recent history that we will see prices hold fairly steady and possibly even start to rise, albeit by a rather small amount. If rates do go up again, it would also seem the prices may come down inversely to the rates going up.

September 2023 saw a total of 973 sales, a 13% decrease compared to August 2023, but an increase of 23% compared to a year ago in September 2022.  This is also 24% fewer sales than the 10 year average for September.

Although sales are down, there is some good news in the fact that new listings are on the rise to help build much needed inventory in our market. With 2,391 new listings in September 2023, we came in 5% higher than the 10 year average for the month, 9% more new listings than August 2023, and a year to year increase of 26%! 

New listings and sales combined, give us our total active inventory, with which we finished the month of September 2023 with 5,066 total homes available to purchase. This is a 4% increase over August 2023, but still coming in 4% below the 10 year average for September.

Another important number we always like to look at, is the sales to active listing ratio, or in plain terms, the number of homes sold per every 100 listed. Anything below 12/100 is a buyer’s market, 12-20/100 is a balanced market and more than 20/100 is a seller’s market. Overall, we finished the month with 19/100 homes of all types selling, but we can further break that down by property type. Detached homes were the lowest ratio with just 13/100 homes selling, while condos and townhomes remained in seller’s market territory with 24/100 condos and 31/100 townhomes. This shows that there is still more demand for more affordable homes which makes sense, as anyone who can afford a higher priced home, can also afford lower priced homes, but of course not the other way around. 

Overall seeing some stability in the market is certainly a good thing, and depending on your situation it is probably a decent time to make a move happen if it makes sense for you and your family. 

If you are looking to purchase without selling, there is not a lot of pressure to rush into things, instead you can take your time when making a decision, and likely have full subjects on your offer. The only potential pressure is the possibility of another interest rate increase lowering your borrowing power.

If you are looking to sell and upgrade to a larger more expensive home, the same as above is likely true for you.

If you are looking to sell and downsize, there is not a lot of pressure to rush either, but you should be aware of how the interest rate will affect the market. 

If you are just looking to sell, there is also not a lot of pressure, as we can be quite certain that prices will jump up once interest rates come down; The only question is, when will that be?