Once again we continue to see the same trends we have seen for most of 2022 happening in the month of September.

September 2022 saw a total of 844 sales, 39% fewer sales than the 10 year average for the month of September, 11% fewer than just a month ago in August 2022 which is usually a slower month than September. Compared to a year ago in September 2021 we saw 52% fewer sales.

New listings are coming in at a high enough rate to fix our inventory issues we saw at the beginning of the year with 2,273 new listings in the month of September 2022. This is just 16% fewer new listings than the 10 year average for the month. September 2022 saw 11% more listings than August 2022, and only 3% fewer new listings than September 2021.

It seems that buyers are hesitant to make a purchase while watching the prices continue to fall, however, prices don’t always tell the whole story. Be sure to check out last month’s newsletter, if you haven’t already, to see my breakdown on how affordability has remained relatively stable through the increasing interest rates and prices dropping. In short, monthly payments on a mortgage for an average home have remained relatively the same although we have seen the same average house drop more than $200,000 over the past half of a year. This is because increasing interest rates offsetting the savings of lower purchase prices. As interest rates continue to rise, we will likely see prices continue to decrease.

The market has continued to see balance based on the number of sales and new listings, with 15% of homes listed selling in the month of September. 12%-20% is a balanced market, below 12% is a buyer’s market and above 20% is a seller’s market. Just like the month of August though, this balanced market does not tell the whole story. Attached homes like townhouses and condos are actually still technically in a seller’s market at 21%, and single family homes are barely balanced at only 12%.

So what does all of this mean for you? Once again, it depends on your situation. As I almost always say, the absolute best time to make a move, is when the time is right for you, but we will break things down a little bit more here.

If you are just looking to buy a home, I would say there is no urgency from the market for you to do so, but if you find a home that is right for you and seems to be a fair market value (or lower if you can find that) then it is likely a good time to make that purchase happen. If you think that prices will continue to decrease, you could wait things out, however, as we already touched on, your monthly payments will likely remain the same. The one advantage that waiting for rock bottom prices is that you will have that much more potential to gain more equity if and when prices start increasing again. Of course, the downside to waiting for bottom prices, is that we often don’t know that prices have hit bottom until it is too late.

If you are looking to sell and upsize, now could be a good time to do so also, as you likely have increased the equity of your current home to help with the down payment on your next place. Depending on the structure of your current mortgage, you could be in for some fairly drastic increases in monthly payments with the new mortgage, but if your current mortgage is up for renewal soon, you are going to see that on your current home as well.

If you are considering downsizing, I still would suggest making a move happen sooner than later. If you are downsizing it is more likely that you are going from a detached home to a townhouse or condo, and as we already touched on, houses are dropping quicker than other home types. It is also more likely in this scenario that you will not be getting a large mortgage, as you will likely be using the proceeds from the sale to finance most of your purchase. If prices of your home are dropping faster than what you will be buying into, and we are not concerned about high interest rates, you will likely net more money in your pocket today than in the future.

No matter what your plans are, if you are considering buying or selling real estate in the near future, be sure to reach out so that we can start making a custom plan for your unique situation.