Hi *|FNAME|*,
Despite interest rates holding steady for 2 straight announcements, we have continued to see prices, sales numbers, and new listings decline through the month of October 2023. Although it may be premature to say the second rate hold did not change things as the announcement was made right at the end of the month on the 25th, the feel of the market has not seen a big shift in the last couple of weeks since the announcement. If the rate hold does have any effect, it will be at the end of this month that we start to see that come into effect.
With just 856 sales in the month of October 2023, we saw a month to month decrease of 12% compared to September 2023, and a year-to-year increase of 6% compared to October 2022. October 2023 came in with 36% fewer sales than the 10-year average for the month of October.
With 2,137 new listings hitting the market in October 2023, we did see an 11% drop compared to September 2023, but a 20% increase year over year compared to October 2022, and 7% higher than the 10-year average. It is quite typical in any given year to see fewer new listings in October than in September, so this number is actually a positive fact in my opinion as we know we need more inventory in our market to maintain balance.
We do have to keep in mind that the 10-year average numbers are a little bit skewed as they do not take into account the number of new homes that exist compared to 10 years ago. Thousands of extra homes exist now compared to 10 years ago and hundreds of thousands of new people have joined our population meaning that our average numbers should be increasing year to year.
The sales to active listing ratio has also declined in Oct 2023 to 16%, meaning that only 16 homes out of every 100 listed have sold. Anything between 12-20% is considered a balanced market, anything above 20% is a seller’s market, and below 12% is a buyer’s market. If we break this down further, condos are at 22% townhomes at 24% and detached just below 12%.
Despite the fact that new listings are doing better than the 10-year average and sales are lower than the 10-year average, we have continued to see total inventory numbers decline. We can correlate that 1,423 homes were taken off the market in the month of October either due to expiring listing contracts or sellers simply deciding not to sell anymore. That is a lot of homes that have come off the market, showing the sentiment of sellers to be quite hesitant.
As we all know by now, the slow activity we are seeing is directly related to the recent inflation combined with increased interest rates. As long as borrowing money remains difficult, prices will likely remain relatively stable, but when rates do eventually go down, we will first see sales increase, quickly followed by prices increasing which will hopefully lead to more homes on the market to help stabilize the increase in prices and bring balance to the market. At the core of it, it is all simple supply and demand.
As far as making a move happen in today’s real estate climate, it is certainly not a bad time to do so. Reduced sales activity means more time to make a decision and be sure you are getting into the home you want.
If you are looking to make a move happen in the near future, be sure to reach out sooner than later so we can start making a plan tailored to your unique needs.
The best time to move, is always when it makes sense for you and your family. I look forward to hearing from you soon!
|
